Sports betting has risen in popularity over time. With the rising popularity, the amount of the different strategies to bet on games have risen. In this article, we will break down some key football betting strategies that will hopefully yield you better results. In this article, we will break down expected value, prices and margins, and value.
Expected value is the use of basic mathematics to make smart bets. Expected value is directly tied to probability, so to understand the expected value it is important to understand probability. Probability is the chance a certain event will occur. The expected value’s function is to give you a long-term projection if betting at that probability is profitable. This type of betting is a great way to minimize the amount of risk involved. To fully understand expected value it is important that this formula is understood.
(Amount won per bet * Probability of winning) – (Probability of losing * Amount lost per bet)
The key part of this is that it will give you a probability that you will win. This strategy shouldn’t be applied to a bettor who is short sighted in their approach. But instead should be a tool in the toolkit of bettor who is looking to earn a long run profit. Here is another important equation that shines light the use of expected value
(Odds * Probability %) / 100 > 1
(Odds * Probability %) / 100 < 1
These two equations are easy ways to evaluate a bet to see if it is worthy to be made or not. If the value is above 1.0 then it means that the bet has value.
Say Liverpool has the odds of 2.5 and they have a 35% chance to win a 100 Euro stake. This means they have a 65% chance to lose. Now when applied to the formula:
(.35 * 150) – (.65 *100) = -12.5
This is a bad bet in the long run as you can see that the expected value is negative and will lead to more often losing than winning.
(2.5 * 0.35) = 0.87
This shows that you are most likely to lose this bet then win thus this would be a bad bet.
Prices and margins are another important key aspect of our football betting strategy guide. By understanding this concept you will be able to figure out which bookies take the most money and which don’t. To evaluate this we will use this formula to see how much bookies are taking. Take a football match and take each of the odds for the draw and the two other teams.
Say Team A has 2.3 odds, Team B has 2 odds, and Draw is 3.5. Now you take it and divide it by 1 and multiply it by 100. This is basically examining it out of a set number, this case it is 100.
(1 / 2.3) * 100 = 43.47, (1 / 2) * 100 = 50, (1 / 3.5) * 100 = 28.57. = 43.47 + 50 + 28.57 = 122.04
This shows that the bookie is taking 22.04 percent of the profit. This is most likely won’t happen in reality but is shown to illustrate the way bookies make money. And the best way to keep the money that you win.
This strategy won’t necessarily help you win more money, but it will help you keep the money you already made. This is a key factor in any football betting guide.
Understanding value is a key part of any betting guide. Value is one of the major ways that you can place bets that have a high chance of returning profit. Value bets are in the simplest form bets that take advantage of the odds that the bookmakers give matches. To understand how to take advantage of odds you need to understand how odds are fixed. Odds are made not off of the statistical analysis of a match or the probability of who will win, but instead off of public conception of who will win the match. A key way to understand value betting is to see which matches posses value. This means which matches you believe are inaccurately assigned odds. By doing this you are able to take advantage of certain bets. To do this you need an extensive knowledge of the league, team, and the match. By knowing this information it will make it easier for you to find value bets.