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Successful Sports Betting Strategies

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Sports betting has risen in popularity over time. With the rising popularity, the amount of the different sports betting strategies has risen. In this article, we will break down some key football betting strategies that will hopefully give you better results. We will also break down expected value, prices and margins, and value.

Expected Value

Expected Value

Expected Value

Expected value is the use of basic mathematics to make smart bets. To understand expected value it is also important to understand probability. Probability is the chance a certain event will occur. The expected value’s function is to give you a long-term projection if betting at that probability is profitable. This type of betting is a great way to minimize the amount of risk involved. The following is the formula for expected value. 

(Amount won per bet * Probability of winning) – (Probability of losing * Amount lost per bet)

The key part of this is that it will give you a probability that you will win. This strategy shouldn’t be applied to a bettor who is short sighted in their approach. It instead should be a tool in the toolkit of bettor who is looking to earn a long run profit. Here is another important equation that helps determine expected value:

(Odds * Probability %) / 100 > 1

(Odds * Probability %) / 100 < 1

These two equations are easy ways to see if a bet is worth making or not. If the value is above 1.0 then it means that the bet has value.

Here is an example for Liverpool vs. Manchester City:

Say Liverpool has the odds of 2.5 and they have a 35% chance to win a 100 Euro stake. This means they have a 65% chance to lose. Now when applied to the formula:

(.35 * 150) – (.65 *100) = -12.5

This is a bad bet in the long run because the expected value is negative. This will often lead to losing more than winning.

Now when evaluating this bet through the other formula:

(2.5 * 0.35) = 0.87

This shows that you are most likely to lose this bet.

Prices and Margins

Price & Margins

Price & Margins

Prices and margins are other important key aspect of our sports betting strategies guide. By understanding this concept you will be able to figure out which bookies take the most money and which don’t. To evaluate this we will use this formula to see how much bookies are taking. Take a football match and take each of the odds for the draw and the two other teams.

Say Team A has 2.3 odds, Team B has 2 odds, and Draw is 3.5. Now you take it and divide it by 1 and multiply it by 100. This is basically examining it out of a set number, this case it is 100.

(1 / 2.3) * 100 = 43.47, (1 / 2) * 100 = 50, (1 / 3.5) * 100 = 28.57. = 43.47 + 50 + 28.57 = 122.04

This shows that the bookie is taking 22.04 percent of the profit. It most likely won’t happen in reality, but it is shown to illustrate the way bookies make money.

This strategy won’t necessarily help you win more money, but it will help you keep the money you already made. This is a key factor in any sports betting strategies.

Value Bets

Understanding value is a key part of anyones sports betting strategies. Value is one of the major ways that you can place bets that have a high chance of returning profit. Value bets are in the simplest form bets that take advantage of the odds that the bookmakers give matches. Odds are made based off of public conception of who will win the match. They are not made based on statistical analyses of winners or probability predictions. A key way to understand value betting is to see which matches posses value. Find the matches you believe have inaccurately assigned odds. By doing this you are able to take advantage of certain bets. To do this you need an extensive knowledge of the league, team, and the match. By knowing this information it will make it easier for you to find value bets.

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