Betting against the public is one of the most popular and easy methods used in sports betting everywhere. The logic is simple; alway bet against the general public consensus. The reason for this idea is that the public can be easily influenced by the media, bookmakers, and other trends. The media and other influencers have an impact how sports bettors wager their money. The public loves to bet on favorites and “overs”. Its human nature to trust putting money on winners and teams with higher success rates. The media over-hypes winning teams that score a lot of points, which further inflates this human tendency. Since bookmakers are in the business to make profits, they understand this and set their lines accordingly. Sometimes they even disregard evaluations and stats. They look to exploit sports bettors tendencies by shading favorites and overs.
There is a strategy that can help you. With difference in long-term winning and losing measured by 1-3%, continually getting an extra 0.5 to 1.0 point every time you bet an underdog or under will increase your win percentage by 1-3%.
The logic behind the “fade the public” concept makes sense if you don’t examine it very deeply. A common problem of many bad sports betting strategies across the spectrum. If you always bet against the masses you’ll be more likely to take advantage of problems caused by bad points spreads and over-analysis by bookmakers.
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This approach fails to take into account just how good bookmakers are at setting these. The whole “fading the public” strategy is (believe it or not) incorporated into the handicapping. Bookmakers are still a step ahead of you. One reason why they profit so well is because they stay at least a step ahead of the public and how they are betting.
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