Betting against the public is one of the most popular and easily understanded methods used by sports bettors all over the world. The logic is simple; alway bet against the general public consensus. The idea behind this betting system is that the public can be easily influenced by the media, bookmakers, and trends that are easily relatable. As media and other influencers impact how sports bettors wager their money the public loves to bet favourites and “overs.” Its human nature to trust putting money on winners and the higher success rate team. After taking into account how media over-hypes winning teams that score a lot of points which further inflates this human tendency. Sports books being in the business to make profits understand this and set their lines accordingly; regardless of evaluation and stats. They look to exploit sports bettors tendencies by shading favourites and overs.
With difference in long-term winning and losing measured by 1-3%, continually getting an extra 0.5 to 1.0 point every time you bet an underdog or under will increase your win percentage by 1-3%.
The logic behind the “fade the public” concept makes sense if you don’t examine it very deeply, a touchstone of bad betting strategies across the spectrum. The supposed logic goes like this – if you always bet against the masses you’ll be more likely to take advantage of in-game aberrations, bad points spreads, and over-analysis by bookmakers and punter alike.
This approach fails to take into account just how good bookmakers are at setting these odds for punters. The whole “fading the public” strategy is (believe it or not) incorporated into the handicapping done by the bookmakers, so they’re still a step ahead of you. One reason why bookmakers profit so well is because they stay at least a step ahead of the public and how they are betting.